My Open Letter to Mr Trump Oct 10 2016

Dear Mr. Trump,

Although we have never met I feel that I could recommend an option or two that may make your next few weeks and months a little clearer for you.

Before I go there I want to say that I really don’t understand why you would want to be President of the United States? You are billionaire with a seemingly happy family and unlimited freedom.  Why would you want to give that up?  You know better than most that the President has very little power in what matters most and leads a life that in your case would be a serious step backward. Sure the President can call Putin or Merkle to talk about trade agreements or whatever.  But so can you.

You have close to unlimited freedom in this environment and can actually solve something if you want to. I know you may be worried about the “Trump Brand” but becoming President will not help that.  If you win, half of the country will be actively demonstrating against your “Brand” because they don’t believe in your politics. The half that supported you will only be on your side as long as they believe you have lived up to your promises.

This leads me to the crux of my letter.  The World Economy is going to Hell. Being in your position you should see that.  The EU is starting to crack, Brexit has proven that.  The EU has huge issues. If Deutsche Bank crumbles which it could, Merkle will be forced to bail it out which will open Pandora’s box and force the EU to address the banking systems in Italy and Spain. This may be the beginning of the end of the EU and you know that.

The Middle East is becoming a testing ground for countries that are all looking for a piece of the pie.  Turkey which may be the long-term key to the whole region has been waffling back and forth looking for the best deal between the other major players who are outside looking in.  In Syria we could be getting drawn into a shooting war that may or may not in our best interests and could result in WWIII.

 I could go on about other global issues: China’s Economic issues, Japan’s 10 year+ ongoing recession and the rash of negative interest rates being used from Japan to Germany.  All of these things are hugely significant in the World Economy and will probably lead to a worldwide recession if not depression within the next few years.

My last issue is the US economy.  You know we are poised for a major Bond meltdown once the FED raises the Funds rate after the election. (Since when did the Fed become responsible for the stock market? That can be for another letter) Once the economy rolls over the Fed will have very few bullets in their arsenal and almost no option but to go negative with interest rates.  You know Mrs. Clinton will have no problem throwing the middle class to the wolves to save the banks.  The stock market will retrace and all of the supposed wealth the Fed assured us we had to offset making no money on our savings will be gone.

Speaking of that the Pension Fund problem, the President and Congress will force the Boomers to take reduced retirement payments to keep the system alive.  How is that going to play out?  Once rates go higher we will probably see a restructuring of the corporate bond market as there will be a shit-load of defaults waiting to happen once rates go higher.  Not just Junk Bonds but a large amount of BBB investment rated bonds that could bring some very large companies to their knees. The stock market has been going up partly by Corporations borrowing money to buy their stock to raise the price.  You know this.  What is going to happen when rates go up and these bonds become due?

How is all of this going to play out when we are in a recession?  That will involve creating at least a Trillion dollar deficit each year to try and spend our way out of it. This on top of the 19 Trillion dollar deficit we already have.  That within a few years we will be borrowing most of the money we need as our Revenue will be going to pay interest expenses. The country also needs to rebuild infrastructure to the tune of 2-3 Trillion dollars

I could do this all day but I think you get the idea.  This Presidential cycle is going to be one of the worst in history.  The legacy of this President is going to be horrible.

But you know this.  I am guessing that you know smarter people then I and you know what’s coming. So you need an exit plan because what the next President will be forced to do to the public will go down in history right next to the World Wars and Great depression of the 20’s. Mrs. Clinton doesn’t care because she wants to be the first women President and will do whatever it takes to get there.  That includes throwing us to the wolves once all of this starts.  She has been planning this- her whole life.  She can’t quit now even if she wanted to. Her time was before Obama was elected and it passed. Now she has to pick up the scraps.t

You need to maintain the “Trump Brand” and losing the election by this personal attack crap is not going to build it up.  I have another option.

Tell the country the truth.  That Obamacare is a mess and needs to be fixed.  That the economy is not as rosy as the Fed and gov’t are telling us.  Many Pension funds both private and government are grossly underfunded and will most likely require people to get less.  We are on the cusp of another recession and due to the extended interest rate manipulation it is going to be bad. Taxes are going up and services like Social Security and Medicare are going down or at least not up.  The infrastructure in this country needs to be replaced. You know the drill.  Tell the truth about where you see the country. Don’t blame other politicians (well maybe the Fed) just tell us what has to be done to survive and recover.  Don’t sugarcoat it.

Two things could happen as I see it.

  1. You will be hailed as the new savior and win the election with a mandate from the people to actually fix the problems you talked about.
  2. You will get your ass kicked and Hillary will win. However once the dust clears and all of this stuff happens your brand will soar.  You told us the truth- you were honest, you tried to help us but the nasty (fill in the blank) wouldn’t let you.  Everyone will love you.

 

Ok that’s what I got.  Sorry it took so long.  Let me know if you have any questions or are looking for some advisors (not me) that could really help you.  Good Luck I am afraid you are going to need it.

 

Sincerely

 

Jerald Carrington

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